climate change crisis
Climate change challenge
Tuesday - 23Jul2019 Filed in: Ecology
I'm tired of being lectured to. So here's my challenge.
I pick any thirteen cities in the United States. You pick any month in one caledar year. You predict the exact temperature of each and every day from five separate locations within the city. But each location must be used only once, and can be no closer than seven blocks from any other location. That means somewhere between 140 and 155 temperature sites per city. Any given day is going to have 65 separate temperature readings for the country.
We're not even getting into the impact of climate change here. We're just seeing if human knowledge of climate is accurate enough to predict actual temperature. Not a range, but an actual temperature. Let's simplify and say that if any three readings on a given day match, that is the "official" reading for that city.
Because if you can't do that, and if the readings in a city vary, and if the readings across a country vary, there is no way you can say that an increased "average" temperature is the result of human activity. Especially if your predictions are in hundredths of a degree.
More importantly, change in one location doesn't mean change in another location.
This is a really reduced model. Let's expand a bit and use every month and every city. Same restrictions. Each location must be used only once per month, and can be no closer than seven blocks from any other location.
We're not adjusting for "climate change" yet, we're just trying to see how accurate the baseline is. Until you can show you can predict existing behavior, you can't model what is actually happening. And if you can't model the actual, there is no way you can model the theoretical.
I pick any thirteen cities in the United States. You pick any month in one caledar year. You predict the exact temperature of each and every day from five separate locations within the city. But each location must be used only once, and can be no closer than seven blocks from any other location. That means somewhere between 140 and 155 temperature sites per city. Any given day is going to have 65 separate temperature readings for the country.
We're not even getting into the impact of climate change here. We're just seeing if human knowledge of climate is accurate enough to predict actual temperature. Not a range, but an actual temperature. Let's simplify and say that if any three readings on a given day match, that is the "official" reading for that city.
Because if you can't do that, and if the readings in a city vary, and if the readings across a country vary, there is no way you can say that an increased "average" temperature is the result of human activity. Especially if your predictions are in hundredths of a degree.
More importantly, change in one location doesn't mean change in another location.
This is a really reduced model. Let's expand a bit and use every month and every city. Same restrictions. Each location must be used only once per month, and can be no closer than seven blocks from any other location.
We're not adjusting for "climate change" yet, we're just trying to see how accurate the baseline is. Until you can show you can predict existing behavior, you can't model what is actually happening. And if you can't model the actual, there is no way you can model the theoretical.
Comments
Dispute
❝❝For the Official Record, I didn't dispute that climate change is occurring. I disputed the measured changes were significant, if they were unusual, and if they were human caused. There's also the questions if the changes are bad, if humans can stop or reverse it, and if we should mess with a climate system that we have yet to understand.
For these reasons I dispute the climate change crisis.❞❞