Consensus doesn't mean true


The classic example
Pete du Pont does a pretty good article on global warming. It's worth your time, but I want to draw attention to this bit.

Sometimes the consequences of bad science can be serious. In a 2000 issue of Nature Medicine magazine, four international scientists observed that "in less than two decades, spraying of houses with DDT reduced Sri Lanka's malaria burden from 2.8 million cases and 7,000 deaths [in 1948] to 17 cases and no deaths" in 1963. Then came Rachel Carson's book "Silent Spring," invigorating environmentalism and leading to outright bans of DDT in some countries. When Sri Lanka ended the use of DDT in 1968, instead of 17 malaria cases it had 480,000.

Yet the Sierra Club in 1971 demanded "a ban, not just a curb," on the use of DDT "even in the tropical countries where DDT has kept malaria under control." International environmental controls were more important than the lives of human beings. For more than three decades this view prevailed, until the restrictions were finally lifted last September.

The DDT argument is an important one and I am including it in my FAQ. It may be the classic example of how "consensus science" can be wrong but still become public policy, even at the cost of thousands of lives.

— NeoWayland

Posted: Thu - February 22, 2007 at 04:38 PM  Tag


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