Embarrassing China


North Korea bites off the face that feeds it
The North Korea nuclear test definitely embarrassed the United States. But it may have embarrassed China more. Austin Bay explains.

But Kim's nuclear test -- though a small bang in a cave -- may have finally wrecked his nuclear racket.

South Korea's "sunshine" policy -- intended to nudge North Korea toward modernity -- has failed. Kim's July missile volley ended Japan's policy of public quiescence and private uneasiness. Likewise, U.S. diplomacy, aimed at ending North Korea's emerging nuclear threat, has failed. The Clinton administration attempted to buy the nukes with economic carrots, the Bush administration (with its six-nation talks) tried to pry the nukes loose using a diplomatic "squeeze." Neither gambit worked, because both strategies to be effective relied on steady Chinese cooperation.

Which is why the nuke test may boomerang on Pyongyang.

North Korea's July missile volley embarrassed China. The nuclear test appears to have galvanized it. Chinese security specialist Shen Dingli said last week that North Korea "considers its national interests (in acquiring nuclear weapons) to be greater than its relations with China." In Shen's words, China's diplomacy has also "been a failure."

Kim's nuke test publicly exposes China's failure -- a major power's failure on its own border.

No one likes to lose face, but "face" is particularly important in North Asian diplomacy.

Forcing North Korea to kowtow (in the regional parlance) is a way for China to re-establish its political position. But this must be done without resort to war.

The last thing China wants is for the U.S. to start looking hard at southeast Asia again. I suspect that is one reason they have been sneaking things into the Middle East.

— NeoWayland

Posted: Wed - October 11, 2006 at 04:26 AM  Tag


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