A qualified report


Scaring people with global climate, but with wiggle room
This is exactly the sort of "news" story that frustrates me.

He said the report would forecast that a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere would bring a temperature rise of 2-4.5C, or maybe higher.

This is an increase on projections in the last IPCC report, which suggested that the rise could be as little as 1.5C.

Get that? Forecast. As in it hasn't happened yet.

As in no one is saying how accurate the last forecast was.

As in the entire story is based on a difference between forecasts.

It's a news story about differing predictions.

Then it gets into this paragraph.

The scientists will say there is still great uncertainty about the pace and scope of future change, although by the end of the century global temperatures could increase by up to 5.8C.

In other words, this is what the scientists guess could happen, but if it doesn't, they were only guessing.

Which scientists? Somehow I doubt that a chemist is going to know about climate prediction. I don't think a microbiologist knows enough about large scale chaotic systems. And I know that a nuclear physicist won't be able to tell me about air currents over the Pacific.

Here's one that you might not have heard of. The link between CO2 and global warming has never been proven. It is an artifact of the computer models.

It's also impossible to prove since the measurement methods have changed drastically from decade to decade.

So if there isn't a scientific consensus and there is no measurable evidence, exactly what do we have?

A lot of hot air. And a push for political control.

Hat tip to Wren's Nest.

— NeoWayland

Posted: Wed - March 1, 2006 at 06:39 PM  Tag


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