Domestic pressure in Iran


The reason behind the noise
This article by Jonah Goldberg examines some of the internal pressure facing the Iranian leadership.

The problem with Iran today is that its regime is closer to the Soviet-totalitarian model than the mere dictatorial or authoritarian which antiwar liberals saw in Saddam. Ahmadinejad and the mullahs are trying to ban Western music (even though "Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs" would be an awesome name for a rock band), control the Internet, and terrify the populace into agreeing with their radical version of Islam (executions are surging). The regime seeks to export terror and the ideology that sanctions it around the region. In other words, even though Ahmadinejad is particularly bad, the regime would still stink if he were to have an "accident."

Conventional wisdom holds that there are really only two options for dealing with Iran: military strikes (by us or Israel) or the usual bundle of conferences, ineffective sanctions and windy UN speeches that lead to nothing. Oh, and Iran could be barred from the World Cup soccer tournament. By all means, let's pin our hopes on that.

But there is a third option that, alas, has become less and less likely in recent years: regime change from within. Pro-democracy - or at least anti-mullah - sentiment has been building in Iran for over a decade. In recent years there have been huge protests against the regime. Soccer stadiums full of Iranians have chanted  "USA! USA!" In 2004, polls of various sorts indicated that anti-regime attitudes were held by up to nine out of 10 Iranians.

Iranians are a proud, nationalistic people and would probably rally around their government - or any government - were it threatened from without. That's one reason Ahmadinejad has been rattling his sabers so much lately: It's an attempt to bolster his unpopular regime.

A coup by sophisticated and serious members of the military would be great news. Even better would be a popular uprising. And best of all would be a combination of the two. An Iran with an old-style military dictatorship charged with defending democratic institutions would be an enormous, epochal victory for the West and for the Middle East. That would go a long way toward guaranteeing success in Iraq and would neutralize the threat of the Iran's nuclear ambitions, even if they decided to pursue a bomb. After all, the argument about nuclear weapons is no different than the argument about guns. The threat is from the people who have them, not from the weapons themselves. Lots of countries have nukes; we only need to worry about the ones run by whack jobs.

I'd say that pretty much covers it. Can Iran get nuclear weapons before it's own internal demands force a regime change?

I think yes, but it is going to be a close thing.

Hat tip to Rite Wing Technopagan.

— NeoWayland

Posted: Thu - January 19, 2006 at 04:30 AM  Tag


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