Not necessarily a conspiracy


More evidence comes in about the Polish plane crash
Last week I said something seemed strange about the plane crash that killed all the Polish officials. Others find it just tragic, so it's probably my paranoia acting up again.

Anne Applebaum makes the case.

Last Saturday, the Polish president, the Polish national bank chairman, the chief of the Polish general staff and a host of other military and political leaders, some of whom were my friends and my husband's colleagues, died in a tragic plane crash in the forest near Smolensk, Russia, not far from where 20,000 Polish officers were secretly murdered by Joseph Stalin 70 years ago. Yet this time around, nobody suspects a conspiracy.

Of course a few fringe Web sites might make that claim, and the odd politician might voice it. But the Russian and Polish governments, the Russian and Polish media, and the vast majority of Russians and Poles believe the culprits to be pilot error and fog. More to the point, discussion of these potential causes has been open and frank. The Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, immediately flew to the crash site, accompanied by his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Polish forensic investigators were on the ground within hours. The Russian government is offering assistance and waiving visa requirements for all families who want to travel to Russia. There are television cameras everywhere. Russian airport officials have been speaking in public, answering questions, talking to journalists.

Adam Chmielewki and Dennis Dutton give details.

It seems clear that there was no particular problem with the plane. True, this Russian-made TU-154 was older than comparable Boeing or Airbus craft, and had flown in the service of the Polish government since 1972; but it was carefully serviced and in good condition.

Moreover, the military airport at Smolensk - which is opened only for special occasions - had safely organised the arrival of Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk on 7 April 2010 to attend a ceremony with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, in what became a moving and symbolic step towards Polish-Russian reconciliation. At the same time, the airport was not equipped with the ILS system that allows planes to land in the kind of fog that blanketed the ground around Smolensk at the time of the flight.

These technical and weather conditions may have contributed to the catastrophe; but were not themselves sufficient to cause it. Here the considerations turn to the possible more human ingredients of the disaster, such as the speculation that Lech Kaczynski’s urgent desire to attend the Katyn ceremony - and awareness that his political arch-rival Donald Tusk had already in a high-profile event at Katyn three days earlier - might have led him to underplay considerations of safety during the trip.

You can never disprove paranoia. Especially mine, which can occasionally be overactive. But in this case, I'm convinced that the chances of "dirty work at the crossroads" is considerably smaller than I first thought.

It was tragic. There's no need for me to slap on the conspiracy theories.

— NeoWayland

Posted: Mon - April 19, 2010 at 12:35 PM  Tag


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