Yesterday and today


Who changed, who didn't, and why
Take a thought journey with me back thirty years.

It's 1977.

Star Wars came out in the summer.

The Apple ][ had just been introduced. Monitor and floppy drives were extra. There was no modem and no mouse, but it was arguably the first "personal computer." Visicalc, the first spreadsheet program that would make the Apple ][ a runaway success, would not be introduced for two more years.

Stereos had three formats, records, reel to reel tapes, and 8-track cartridges. Although stereo cassettes existed, at the consumer level the quality wasn't very good. The Sony Walkman would not come out until 1979.

AT&T had just begun to sell phones instead of renting them. Many customers were still contractually forbidden from connecting anything except a phone to the phone line. While mobile telephones existed, they were heavy and bulky and usually mounted permanently in cars. Commercial cell phone networks were another two years away. The breakup of the the AT&T monopoly would not happen until 1982.

Microwave ovens were expensive with mechanical controls and timers.

Home video recorders were just beginning to come into their own.

Early prototypes of infrared television remote controls were just being designed and built.

The accepted solution to the "education crisis" was to spend more money and get the government more involved.

The accepted solution to the "medical care crisis" was to spend more money and get the government more involved.

The accepted solution to the "narcotics problem" was to spend more money and get the government more involved.

The accepted solution to the "global cooling crisis" was to spend more money and get the government more involved.

The accepted solution to the Social Security "crisis" was to spend more money and get the government more involved.

Today, there have been some changes.

Star Wars spawned five sequels, inspired thirty years of "summer blockbusters," and ignited a firestorm of film technology advances. There are more films produced every year than ever before.

There weren't laptop computers in 1977, but there are now. Today's desktops and laptops have several thousand times the power, speed, and memory of the Apple ][. Today's top of the line desktop machines can outperform the top of the line main frames from 1977 at a fraction of the price. Even the OPC, a computer designed for children in developing nations, blows the door off the Apple ][. Handheld computers have several times the capacity of the Apple ][ and have become so cheap that they are being merged with high end cell phones to make smartphones.

Cassettes replaced 8-tracks as the popular portable music format, and were in turn replaced by CDs, which then were replaced by MP3 and MP4 files. Today's portable music plays longer, is better sounding, and today's music players can hold the equivalent of several hundred CDs, movies, photo albums, address books, calendars and notes.

Cellphones have become so widespread that for many people it's cheaper to have a cell than a traditional landline. Even low end cell phones offer features that were top end in 1977, like voice mail, autodialing, and paging. And at the high end, there are smart phones which incorporate powerful computers.

Microwave ovens have become so cheap and popular that for many homes, they are used more than stoves and convection ovens. Digital timers, temperature probes, and variable cycles make them more capable than ever before.

Thanks to VCRs, the home video market exploded. More entertainment is available to more people than ever before.

Just try finding a TV without a remote control.

Some things haven't changed.

The accepted solution to the "education crisis" is to spend more money and get the government more involved.

The accepted solution to the "medical care crisis" is to spend more money and get the government more involved.

The accepted solution to the "narcotics problem" is to spend more money and get the government more involved.

The accepted solution to the "global warming crisis" is to spend more money and get the government more involved.

The accepted solution to the Social Security "crisis" is to spend more money and get the government more involved.

The difference is the free market and competition. If a business has to work to keep it's customers, it has to offer more value tomorrow than it offered today. Or the company down the street gets the cash.

Even in mature industries, a company can't afford to do things the same way today that they did yesterday.

The exceptions are the businesses most heavily regulated or protected by government. They still are doing the same things thirty years later.

— NeoWayland

Posted: Wed - December 5, 2007 at 05:48 AM  Tag


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